📌 What is Polymarket
Polymarket is the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform, where users trade on real-world event outcomes. Each market represents a binary event (Yes/No), and prices reflect the market's consensus probability of the event occurring.
💡 Core concept: Market price = event probability. A market priced at $0.60 means the market believes there's a 60% chance of the event happening.
🎯 Market Types
| Type | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Binary | Yes/No outcomes | "Will BTC reach $100K in 2026?" |
| Multiple Choice | Several possible outcomes | "Who will win the 2026 Super Bowl?" |
| Numerical | Value range predictions | "What will the Fed rate be in 2026?" |
| Sprint | Short-term fast settlement (5-15 min) | "Will BTC go up in the next 5 minutes?" |
💰 Order Types
Market Order
- Executes immediately at the best available price
- Best for quick entry, but may have slippage
- Example: Buy 100 YES shares at $0.55
Limit Order
- Set a specific price and wait for execution
- Best for large orders to reduce slippage
- May not fill if price doesn't reach your level
📊 Fee Structure
- Maker fee: 0% (providing liquidity with limit orders)
- Taker fee: 2% (removing liquidity with market orders)
- Gas fee: Polygon network fees (~$0.01-$0.10 per transaction)
💡 Pro tip: Use limit orders to become a Maker and avoid the 2% fee. Especially valuable for large trades.
🏆 Settlement Process
- Event occurs → Polymarket fetches official result
- Oracle (UMA) verifies the outcome
- Winning shares automatically redeem at $1.00/share
- Losing shares become worthless
- Funds automatically return to your wallet
⚠️ Risk Warnings
- Prediction markets carry risk of principal loss; you can lose your entire investment
- Low-liquidity markets may be difficult to exit
- Settlement can be delayed (waiting for oracle confirmation)
- Never invest more than you can afford to lose