Day 1 · Learning path
Prediction market basics
Understand what a prediction market is, what price means, and why it behaves like both a trading venue and an information market. Learn to read the market before trying to trade it.
🎯 What you need to understand first
- Market price is basically a probability expression. A 0.63 price is close to 63% implied probability.
- Yes/No contracts are not stocks. Their terminal value is capped by market resolution.
- Price moves come from new information, liquidity, crowd reaction, and time.
- You are not just asking whether the event happens. You are asking whether the market is priced correctly right now.
🧠 Core intuition
- Implied probability is usually close to current price.
- Expected edge appears when your estimated true probability is better than market pricing.
- The key question is not only “will it happen?” but “is the market wrong?”
Study tip: treat each market as a probability engine first, not as a place to gamble immediately.
✅ Today’s task
- Open 3 active markets and record their Yes probabilities.
- Write one sentence explaining each market’s resolution rule.
- Do not trade yet. Build market-reading skill first.