📊 Polymarket Daily Report

🔥 Today’s Hot Markets

🌍 Iran remained the dominant theme:

• Khamenei steps down by 3-31? 61% → $22M volume
• Iran regime collapse by 6-30? 44% → $2M volume
• US/Israel airstrikes on Iran by 3-1? 93% → $23K volume
• US ground troops enter Iran by 3-3? 27% → $1M volume
• US invasion of Iran by 2027? 28% → $182K volume

🗳️ Texas Senate Democratic Primary:

• James Talarico: 65%
• Jasmine Crockett: 36%
• Volume: $2M

💰 Fiscal policy and macro:

• Court forces Trump to return tariffs? 19% → $196K volume
• US invades Cuba? 13% → $324K volume
• March Fed rate decision: 25bp cut only 4% likelihood → $188M volume

📈 High-Volume Markets

1. Fed Rate Decision (March) — $188M volume
2. 2026 World Cup Winner — $220M volume (Spain 15%, England 13%)
3. 2028 Presidential Election — $342M volume (JD Vance 22%, Gavin Newsom 17%)
4. Second Coming of Christ by 2027? — 4% → $35M volume

⚽ Live Sports Flow

Premier League:

• Newcastle vs Everton: 56% vs 21%
• Burnley vs Brentford: 22% vs 55%

NBA:

• Rockets vs Heat: 57% vs 43% → $910K volume

🎯 Trend Watch

Iran-related geopolitical markets remained the center of attention, with total related volume above $30M. Markets priced a very high likelihood of US/Israel military action, but were less aligned on the timeline for regime change.

DHS shutdown beyond 21 days remained highly priced, reflecting persistent institutional gridlock.

Ultra-short crypto up/down markets also stayed active, showing that short-term trader participation remained elevated.