Polymarket Special Report: Simmer Edition

🎯 I. Simmer Core Positioning

Simmer is a prediction market trading interface designed specifically for AI Agents, developed by Spartan Labs.

Feature	Description
Target Users	AI autonomous trading agents (also supports manual trading)
Supported Markets	Polymarket (Polygon), Kalshi
Wallet Mode	Self-custody wallet or Simmer custody
Simulated Trading	$SIM virtual currency, real market prices, zero-risk practice
Unified API	One SDK for multiple trading venues

Official Site:https://simmer.markets
SDK Docs:https://simmer.markets/docs.md
Telegram Community:t.me/+m7sN0OLM_780M2Fl

🧠 II. Strategy System (4 Core Strategies)

1️⃣ Weather Trader

Inspiration: @gopfan2's temperature forecasting strategy

Item	Configuration
Data Source	NOAA Weather Forecast API
Strategy Logic	Buy when forecast shows strong edge (e.g., 70%+ probability) vs market implied probability (e.g., 40%)
Exit Conditions	Odds convergence or reaching profit target
Applicable Markets	Polymarket temperature prediction markets
Install Command	`clawhub install polymarket-weather-trader`

2️⃣ Mert Sniper (Expiry Sniper)

Inspiration: @mert's near-expiry conviction trading strategy

Item	Configuration
Scan Window	Default 2-8 minutes to expiry
Minimum Skew	60%/40% or higher
Maximum Position	$10/trade (configurable)
Applicable Markets	5-minute cryptocurrency markets (BTC/ETH/SOL up/down)
Install Command	`clawhub install polymarket-mert-sniper`

3️⃣ Copytrading

Function: Automatically track and replicate successful traders' positions

Item	Configuration
Tracking Targets	Top-N high win-rate wallets
Minimum Copy Amount	Configurable (e.g., starting from $5)
Rebalancing Logic	Automatically calculate target allocation and execute rebalancing
Install Command	`clawhub install polymarket-copytrading`

4️⃣ Signal Sniper

Function: Automated trading based on RSS subscription feeds

Item	Configuration
Data Source	RSS subscriptions (news, Twitter, blogs, etc.)
Trigger Conditions	Keyword matching + sentiment analysis
Execution Speed	Second-level response
Install Command	`clawhub install polymarket-signal-sniper`

📚 III. Tutorial & Practical Path

Phase 1: Simulated Trading ($SIM)

Goal: Accumulate trading data and experience in a zero-risk environment

# 1. Get API Key
Visit https://simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab

# 2. Set environment variables
export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_xxx
export TRADING_VENUE=simmer  # Simulated mode

# 3. Install skills
clawhub install polymarket-weather-trader
clawhub install polymarket-mert-sniper

# 4. Run simulation
cd skills/polymarket-weather-trader
python3 weather_trader.py  # Default dry-run

Graduation Criteria: Win rate ≥70%, 20 consecutive profitable trades

Phase 2: Real Trading (Polymarket)

Prerequisite: Achieve graduation criteria in simulation phase

# 1. Deposit USDC.e to Simmer wallet
Address: 0x86E26b79a6F845fd1a11fc704c68486E03920214

# 2. Switch to real mode
export TRADING_VENUE=polymarket
export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x...  # Required for self-custody wallet

# 3. Enable real trading
python3 weather_trader.py --live

⚠️ IV. Risks & Considerations

1. Wallet Security

Risk	Recommendation
Private key leakage	Use a dedicated small wallet, do not keep main funds
Simmer custody	Server-side key management, platform risk exists
Self-custody wallet	Must safeguard private key yourself, irrecoverable if lost

2. Trading Risks

Risk	Recommendation
Slippage	Real markets have 2-5% orderbook slippage, $SIM has no slippage
Liquidity	Small markets may not execute timely
Settlement Delay	Polymarket settlement depends on oracle, may be delayed

✅ V. Actionable Recommendations (For Your Account)

Current Status

Item	Status
SIMMER_API_KEY	✅ Configured
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY	❌ Not set
Simmer Wallet Address	`0x86E26b79...0214`
Trading Mode	PAPER MODE (Simulation)
Installed Skills	12 (including Weather/Mert/Copytrading, etc.)

Today's Action List

Continue simulated trading practice ✅ Already set
- Mert Sniper auto-scans every 5 minutes
- Logs: tail -f /tmp/mert_sniper.log
Test deposit (optional)
- Deposit $10-20 USDC.e to 0x86E26b79...
- Use Across Bridge (https://across.to) to bridge from other chains
Monitor data
- Target: Win rate ≥70%, 20 consecutive profitable trades
- Enable live trading only after meeting criteria

📎 Appendix: Resource Links

Type	Link
Official Site	https://simmer.markets
SDK Docs	https://simmer.markets/docs.md
Skill Market	https://simmer.markets/skills
ClawHub	https://clawhub.ai
Telegram	https://t.me/+m7sN0OLM_780M2Fl
GitHub SDK	https://github.com/SpartanLabsXzy/simmer-sdk

📊 Polymarket Special Report: Simmer Edition