Weekly report
Polymarket Weekly Report · 2026-03-02
A structured weekly summary of the dominant market narrative, major volume clusters, sentiment drift, and the key setups worth watching next.
Theme: geopolitics dominant
Focus: Iran-related markets
Layer: update feed
🔥 Weekly focus
This week Polymarket activity was heavily concentrated around Middle East developments. Iran-related contracts dominated both attention and volume, pushing geopolitical event markets into the core of weekly decision flow.
Iran situation
| Market | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Iranian regime falls before June 30? | 41% Yes | $3M |
| US / Israel bomb Iran before March 2? | 98% Yes | $2M |
| Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz? | 55% Yes | $200K+ |
| US invades Iran before 2027? | 23% Yes | $235K |
| Iran appoints a new successor before March 2? | 33% Yes | $567K |
| Reza Pahlavi enters Iran before March 31? | 10% Yes | $3M |
Key read: short-term military escalation was priced aggressively, while longer-horizon political outcomes remained much more fragmented.
⚔️ Ceasefire expectations
- US × Iran ceasefire before March 2: 2% (about $2M volume)
- US × Iran ceasefire before March 6: 12%
- Iran / Israel conflict ends before March 7: 20%
- Iran / Israel conflict ends before March 15: 36%
Interpretation: the market expected escalation to arrive faster than resolution. That asymmetry matters for timing, headline sensitivity, and overnight risk.
📊 Cross-market notes
Bitcoin
- BTC 5-minute up/down stayed one of the highest-volume short-cycle contracts at roughly $20M.
Sports
- Fulham vs Spurs: Fulham 87%
- Man Utd vs Palace: Palace 42%
Esports
- CS2: Astralis vs Monte — Astralis 75%
- LoL: G2 vs Karmine Corp — G2 64%
🔮 Next-week outlook
- Continue monitoring Iran-related event chains and secondary reaction markets.
- Early March remains a dense expiry cluster for multiple narrative contracts.
- BTC volatility is still elevated and likely to keep short-cycle markets active.